2010-6
摘要
Mining Royalty Tax Rate Rise In March 2010, Ghana announced an increase in the country’s mineral royalty tax, from 3%, to 5%, effective March 19. The move comes as the country seeks to increase the amount of mineral wealth the government keeps within Ghana. However, two of the largest mining companies operating in Ghana, AngloGold Ashanti and Newmont, are exempt from by the royalty increase, due to previously-signed stability agreements with the government.
BMI does not foresee this tax increase as having a dramatically negative effect on the Ghanaian mining sector. Although tax rates are clearly a negative for mining companies, the Ghanaian government showed a certain amount of flexibility in setting the new rate at 5%, backing down from a November 2009 announcement that it would double the royalty tax rate, to 6%. In addition, Ghana’s tax regime now compares quite favourably to other tax regimes prevalent across the industry. For example, the Australian government’s plans to introduce a royalty super profits tax rate of 40% from 2012 has already led to one mining investor asking whether its Ghanaian operations may now prove more lucrative than its Australian ones, given the disparity in tax rates (see Manganese section of this report for more information).
New Data
For 2010, BMI has made significant changes to the way in which we forecast mining data. As well as using local statistics agencies and associations, we now also draw on the expertise of the UN’s Industrial Commodity Statistics Database, the US Geological Survey and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics for our historical export and production data. We then forecast this data using our own proprietary econometric model. Human intervention also plays a necessary and desirable role in our mining forecasting; experience, expertise and knowledge of industry trends and developments ensuring that we can spot likely future changes and anomalous data that a purely mechanical model would not.
Country Overview
Ghana contains the second largest area of gold deposits in the African region after South Africa. The nation derives the bulk of its external revenue from gold mining, which accounts for over 90% of Ghana’s total mineral exports. Apart from gold, Ghana also produces significant quantities of bauxite and diamonds. The country is also counted among the top five nations across the globe for its manganese ore production. Ghana is home to some of the biggest names from the global mining industry: Gold Fields, Newmont Ghana and South Africa’s AngloGold Ashanti.
Industry Forecast
Ghana’s mining sector holds great potential. The country is regarded as stable, with clear regulatory standards governing the industry. Ghana is already Africa’s second largest producer and exporter of gold and is among the global top-five in manganese ore production. Moreover, the country actually managed to expand its mining sector in 2009, given its position as a key gold producer. Moreover, with gold being Ghana’s principal mining asset and prices remaining strong, forecasts for the mining sector in Ghana are more positive than those of some of its African neighbours. In calculating its forecasts, BMI has also taken account of the vast untapped potential of Ghana’s mining industry. As such, we expect the value of the mining industry to increase sharply over our forecast period.
目录及图表
Executive Summary ............................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis .................................................................... 7
Ghana Political SWOT ................................. 7
Ghana Economic SWOT ............................... 8
Ghana Business Environment SWOT ............ 9
Global Mining Outlook ...................................................... 10
Table: Rio Tinto’s Capital And Major Evaluation Projects For 2010 ..................................... 10
BMI Views .................................................. 11
Risks To Outlook ......................................... 12
Industry Trends And Developments ................................ 14
Overview ..................................................... 14
Regulatory Structure And Developments .... 14
Key Projects .. 15
Bauxite ........................................................ 15
Gold ............................................................ 15
Manganese .................................................. 16
Diamonds .................................................... 17
Business Environment ..................................................... 18
Africa Mining Overview .............................. 18
Africa Mining Business Environment Ratings .... 19
Table: Africa Mining Business Environment Ratings.............................................................. 19
Ghana’s Business Environment Ratings ..... 20
Political Environment ........................................................ 22
Domestic Politics ........................................ 22
Industry Forecast Scenario ............................................... 26
Commodities Forecast – Nickel To Average US$22,000/tonne In 2010 ................................... 26
Table: BMI Nickel Forecast ........................ 26
Table: Nickel............................................... 28
Aluminium Update: Downside Risks To Average Price ofUS$2,100/tonne In 2010 ................. 29
Table: BMI Aluminium Forecast ................ 29
Table: Aluminium ....................................... 30
Commodities Forecast – Gold To Average US$1,150/oz In 2010 ............................................ 30
Table: BMI Gold Forecast .......................... 30
Table: Gold ................................................. 34
Commodities Forecast – Copper ................ 35
Table: BMI Copper Forecast ...................... 35
Table: Copper ............................................. 36
Ghana’s Mining Industry Forecast ............. 37
Table: Ghana’s Mining Industry Forecast, 2007-2014 ........................................................... 37
Competitive Landscape .................................................... 38
Table: Key Players In The Ghanaian Mining Sector .............................................................. 38
Company Monitor .............................................................. 39
AngloGold Ashanti ...................................... 39
Gold Fields ................................................. 41
Newmont Mining ......................................... 43
Global Assumptions Q310................................................ 44
Table: Global & Regional Real GDP Growth ... 44
Table: Global Assumptions ......................... 45
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecast ........................................................... 46
Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth .... 47
Business Environment Ratings Methodology................. 49
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators .................................................................... 50
Table: Weighting Of Components ............... 51