2010-7
摘要
BMI View: The first round of the presidential elections took place in Colombia on May 30 2010. Neither of the two leading candidates - former Defence Minister Juan Manuel Santos and Green Party leader and former Bogotá mayor, Antanas Mockus - clinched an outright victory, so there will be a second round of voting on June 20. Both candidates have pledged to continue President Álvaro Uribe's tough stance on national security and business-friendly economic policies. Whatever the outcome of the elections, therefore, BMI believes that the pledge to maintain the successful policies of the Uribe era bodes well for the agricultural sector as it should continue to attract investment in the country.
Despite 2.4% real GDP growth in Q409, BMI maintains its below consensus forecast of 2.1% and 3.5% real GDP growth for 2010 and 2011, respectively, primarily as we expect global economic headwinds to hold Colombia's economic performance back over the coming months.
Consumer prices are forecast to grow by 3.5% y-o-y in 2010, up from 2.0% in 2009.
Dry weather during the first three months of 2010 caused by the el Niño weather pattern followed by wet weather during Q210 has damaged sugar harvests, dashing hopes of a bumper crop. As a result, we have revised down our forecast and now see sugar production dropping to 2.21mn tonnes, marginally below the 2.28mn tonnes registered in 2008/09.
Coffee production is forecast to return to growth after a disastrous harvest in 2009/10. We believe output will reach 10.26mn 60kg bags, up by 18.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) but still some way short of 2008's total of 12.52mn bags.
We have revised down our forecast for corn production in 2009/10 as severe droughts during the early months of the year have had a negative impact on planting. We now see production reaching 1.62mn tonnes, an 8.3% y-o-y increase on 2008/09, but still below the levels seen in 2007/08.
Beef consumption is forecast to pick up in 2009/10 after demand dipped strongly during the economic recession. We see demand growing by 5.9% y-o-y to reach 834,800 tonnes. Demand has been supported by the increased availability as the continuing trade spat with Venezuela has negatively impacted exports.
The signing of a free trade agreement (FTA) between the EU and Colombia in May 2010 spells good news for some sectors of Colombian agriculture. Coffee, cocoa and sugar producers should all benefit from tariff-free access to the high value European market.
The signing of the FTA was less well received in other areas of the Colombian agricultural industry, in particular the dairy sector. Dairy farmers staged several rounds of national protests against the agreement through H110. Dairy producers fear that their livelihood may be endangered by an influx of subsidised imports from Europe. Both the Colombian government and the EU have announced a raft of measures to help the Colombian dairy industry remain competitive. Nonetheless, Colombian dairy producers remain concerned about the impact of the FTA on their livelihood and announced a further round of rallies and protests following the signing of the agreement.
目录及图表
Executive Summary ... 5
SWOT Analysis ........... 7
Colombia Agriculture SWOT ............. 7
Colombia Political SWOT ... 8
Colombia Economic SWOT ............. 9
Colombia Business Environment SWOT .......... 9
Industry Forecast Scenario .......... 10
Colombia Sugar Outlook ....... 10
Table: Colombia – Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade ............ 11
Table: Colombia – Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade ............ 14
Colombia Cocoa Outlook....... 15
Table: Colombia – Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade ........... 16
Table: Colombia – Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade ........... 17
Colombia Livestock Outlook .. 18
Table: Colombia – Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade ......... 19
Table: Colombia – Pork Production, Consumption & Trade .............. 19
Table: Colombia – Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade .. 20
Table: Colombia – Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade ......... 21
Table: Colombia – Pork Production, Consumption & Trade .............. 21
Table: Colombia – Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade .. 22
Colombia Coffee Outlook....... 23
Table: Colombia – Coffee Production & Consumption . 24
Table: Colombia – Coffee Production & Consumption . 27
Colombia Grains Outlook . 29
Table: Colombia – Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade .......... 30
Table: Colombia – Corn Production, Consumption & Trade ............. 30
Table: Colombia – Barley Production, Consumption & Trade ........... 31
Table: Colombia – Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade ........... 32
Table: Colombia – Corn Production, Consumption & Trade ............. 32
Table: Colombia – Barley Production, Consumption & Trade ........... 33
Colombia Dairy Outlook... 34
Table: Colombia – Milk Production & Consumption .... 35
Table: Colombia – Butter Production, Consumption & Trade ........... 35
Table: Colombia – Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade .......... 35
Table: Colombia – Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade ..... 36
Table: Colombia – Milk Production & Consumption ... 38
Table: Colombia – Butter Production, Consumption & Trade.......... 39
Table: Colombia – Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade .......... 39
Table: Colombia – Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade ..... 39
Competitive Landscape 41
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders .. 41
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers ......... 42
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers....... 43
Commodity Price Analysis ........... 44
Grains Update 44
Corn ........... 44
Table: Corn ....... 44
Rough Rice . 45
Table: Rice . 45
Soybean ..... 46
Table: Soybean .. 46
Wheat ......... 47
Table: Wheat...... 47
Softs Update .... 48
Cocoa......... 48
Table: Cocoa ..... 48
Coffee......... 49
Table: Coffee ..... 49
Milk ............ 50
Table: Milk 50
Sugar ......... 51
Table: Sugar ...... 51
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis .......... 52
Industry Forecast Scenario .............. 52
Consumer Outlook ............ 52
Food .......... 55
Total Food Consumption .. 55
Table: Colombia Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts ............. 56
Canned Food/Prepared Food .......... 56
Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts .... 57
Confectionery..... 57
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts ....... 58
Trade ......... 59
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance -- Historical Data & Forecasts 60
Mass Grocery Retail ......... 61
Table: Mass Grocery Retail -- Value Sales by Format -- Historical Data & Forecasts .... 61
Table: Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type . 62
Macroeconomic Forecast . 63
Table: Colombia - Economic Activity, 2007-2014 ......... 65
BMI Forecast Modelling 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .......... 66